A World Where the Old Playbook No Longer Applies

AREAS is a framework we developed for the 10F project to map strategic positioning during systemic transformation.

"The world isn't breaking down. It's breaking apart—into multiple systems with incompatible rules." ~ 10F Consortium

The 10F Consortium is "an independent collective of 20+ futurists, strategic analysts, and domain experts who convened in Singapore in September 2025. "The project operates with complete intellectual independence, funded by the Tingari-Silverton Foundation.

They came up with ten strategic forecasts that mapped how unified global systems are fragmenting into multiple incompatible arrangements. They call this the shift from "one game to many games"—where organizations must now navigate competing rules, shifting alliances, and parallel systems that don't interoperate. This is strategic intelligence for organizations making decisions in a world where the old playbook no longer applies." There are the Ten Forecasts:

The Ten Forecasts

1. From Agreed Transparency to Engineered Opacity

2. From Political Spectrum to Ideological Fog

3. From Digital Empathy to Localized Solidarity

4. From Special Relationships to Strategic Situationships

5. From Collective Climate Ambition to Fragmented Adaptation

6. From Open Society to Strategic Opacity

7. From Selective Migration to People as an Asset Class

8. From Energy Hegemony to Power Plurality

9. From Dollar Dominance to Money Unbundled

10. From Technology Convergence to Sovereign Systems

Domains covered: Trade systems, migration, energy, financial systems, climate policy, civil society, technology governance, political systems, information ecosystems, and global health infrastructure.

Self-organized. Open-access. Built for post-2025 disruption.

Twenty-plus independent practitioners—no institutional sponsor, no client agenda—came together to produce the strategic foresight that traditional institutions aren't delivering. The consortium convened for an intensive two-day workshop in Singapore, followed by distributed drafting and editorial collaboration across six continents.

Project Leads:

• Scott Smith — Co-founder of Changeist, author of How to Future (2020), co-author of Future Cultures (2023), has 25+ years in applied foresight.

• Ariel Muller — Founder of Middlegame, strategic foresight, and systems design.

• Susan Cox-Smith — Co-founder of Changeist, futures research and strategy, co-author of Future Cultures (2023)

Key Contributors: Lina Srivastava (Center for Transformational Change, US), Aarathi Krishnan (RAKSHA Intelligence Futures, US), Dr. Jake Dunagan (IFTF, US), Cheryl Chung (Tent Futures, Singapore), Dr. Katindi Sivi (LongView Consulting, Kenya), Prof. Ariella Helfgott (SA Futures Agency, Australia), Bernise Ang and Shaun Koh (Zeroth Labs, Singapore), Dr. Vaughn Tan (Singapore), Igor Schwarzmann (Berlin, Germany), and others.

"What we're witnessing isn't random chaos but systematic reorganization driven by strategic norm abandonment. When powerful actors defect from established rules—whether tariff frameworks, climate commitments, or information transparency—it signals that old constraints no longer bind. This triggers cascades of imitation that transform entire systems. Organizations assuming a return to normal will discover the ground has shifted beneath them." ~ 10F Consortium