Alternative Future Senarios of Climate Change in Oregon

Land use decisions are a powerful lever for shaping the future. These research-driven scenarios demonstrate how foresight tools can help communities imagine and design a more equitable and sustainable future—one that works for both people and the environment.~ Rachel Hatch, Chief Operating Officer, IFTF

On December 11, 2024, the Institute for the Future (IFTF) published a study: Oregon 2035: Four Alternative Scenarios on climate change. This alternative futures project was a collaborative effort involving policy advocates, community members, and partners from 1000 Friends of Oregon with futurists and creatives at IFTF.

They summarized their scenarios in four brief but spectacular YouTube videos:

1. A Growth Future: INSATIABLE (A future driven by the desire for continued economic growth, even at the expense of equality and sustainability.)

2. A Collapse Future: SCRATCH (A future ravaged by climate, economic disparities, and breakdown of core systems.)

3. A Constraint Future: PRUNING (A future driven by difficult choices and the acceptance of fewer individual freedoms for the benefit of all.)

4. A Transformation Future: LIMINAL (A future accelerated by technological breakthroughs and a re-definition of reality.)

Download the IFtF document, Oregon 2035: Four Alternative Scenarios Prepared by Institute for the Future for 1000 Friends of Oregon here.

1000 Friends of Oregon is now over 50 years old. It was founded by Henry Richmond and Governor Tom McCall in 1974. The previous year, Governor McCall had signed Senate Bill 100 into law, creating Oregon’s iconic land use planning system. He and a young attorney named Henry Richmond realized that the fledgling legislation would need a champion – or rather, 1000 champions. The non-profit organization's current Executive Director is Sam Diaz.

Our mission is to promote healthy working lands, great communities, shared prosperity, and a strong democracy with and for all Oregonians.

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This year, the Institute For The Future, at their October 27-29, 2025 Summit, explored many provocative futurist themes, among them:

• Tech as New Religion: Emergence and influence of Silicon Valley's movements, such as Rationalism and Effective Altruism.

• How Babies Will be Made: The reimagining of human reproduction and creation

• Gamblification Economy: Rise of markets that appear and disappear like casino games

• Public Option AI: Efforts to build artificial intelligence tools and platforms as public utilities and other common goods

• Post-Epistemological Truth: New ways of knowing beyond traditional systems

• Self-Determined Learning: Education by, for, and with learners

• Hot Planet: Living in a world where the 1.5 °C threshold in global temperature rise has been crossed

IFTF brought these "thought leaders" to the 2025 Summit:

• Author, futurist, and IFTF Distinguished Fellow, Jamais Cascio

• Neuroscientist, Author, Technologist, Entrepreneur, David Eagleman

• IFTF Emerging Media Lab Director, Toshi Hoo

• Author, futurist, and IFTF Distinguished Fellow, Bob Johansen

• Author, futurist and IFTF Research Director, Jane McGonigal

• Television and media executive, Wendy McMahon

• White House Office of Science and Technology Policy under President Biden, Arati Prabhakar

• Scholar in Residence at Andus Labs, media theorist and writer, Douglas Rushkoff

• Author and Professor, Stanford Graduate School of Education, Maisha Winn

"Today, as never before, we need a multiplicity of visions, dreams, and prophecies. We need sanctuaries for social imagination."—Alvin Toffler, Future Shock